水稻黑尾叶蝉(Nephotettix bipunctatus Cincticeps)在自然界中的种群变动与数量消长,为多方面的环境因子所制约,诸如虫源、气象条件、食料、天敌及耕作制度等。据前人研究结果,在其它环境因子大致相同的情况下,气象条件将起决定性作用。我们试图根据多年积累的历史资料,就气象条件方面对黑尾叶蝉发生趋势预测进行初步探讨。 Population dynamics and population growth of Nephotettix bipunctatus Cincticeps in nature are controlled by various environmental factors such as insect source, meteorological conditions, foodstuffs, natural enemies and cropping system. According to the results of previous studies, meteorological conditions will play a decisive role under the same circumstances of other environmental factors. We try to preliminary study on the trend forecast of Nephotettix cinctus according to the historical data accumulated over the years.