Readjustment of World Economic Pattern and Integration of Interests among BRICS States

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  Assistant President, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
  At present, the world economy is entering a new stage featuring profound structural readjustment and upgrading reform of governance rules. Cooperation among the BRICS states will face increasing new challenges and uncertainties brought about by the readjustment of world economic pattern. On the one hand, the readjustment of world economic pattern is exerting a systematic impact on both internal and external economic environment of the BRICS states. On the other hand, the BRICS states need to further deepen their cooperation in the existing mechanisms and areas. This paper mainly focuses on the development trend of the readjustment of world economic structure in the next five years and discusses on ways the BRICS states could take to deal with the readjustment of world economic pattern by strengthening the integration of their interests.
  Trend and Direction of Readjustment of World Economic Pattern
  President Xi Jinping points out that the next decade will be crucial to the transformation of the new and old kinetic energy of the world economy, in which the changes in international structure and balance of power will accelerate and global governance system will be reshaped in an in-depth way. This strategic judgment provides a direction for us to deeply understand future readjustment of world economic structure. In recent years, under the impact of ideological trend of “anti-globalization” and protectionist action, the world economic structure has undergone profound evolution and readjustment, with the following trends deserving attention:
  1. Slowdown of World Economic Growth
  The downside risk of world economic growth has remarkably increased, and all major economies around the world are faced with the pressure of internal economic restructuring and development transformation. According to the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2019, the global economy is now in a simultaneous slowdown, with the growth rate once again being downgraded to 3% in 2019. Under the impact of economic protectionism and political populism, the challenges brought about by stagnant global trade growth, fiscal deficits, high unemployment, aging population and climate change remain important factors in world economic growth. Among them, the social and environmental crisis caused by demographic change as well as climate and environmental change deserve particular attention. In fiscal year 2019, 31% of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /International Development Association (IBRD/IDA) funding pledged to include climate synergies, which has exceeded the World Bank target of 28% by 2020. The increase of global population and the change of demographic structure have continuously intensified the contradiction between mankind and environmental resources, and cast a shadow over the long-term stable growth of world economy. Both developed economies like the United States and Europe and emerging markets are generally facing the development pressure of internal economic structural readjustment and industrial transformation, and suffer from insufficient economic growth power.   2. Rising Pressure on Reform of Multilateral Trade Governance Mechanism
  With the increasing uncertainties in global trade environment, the task of reforming multilateral trade governance mechanism is arduous. The growth rate of global trade has stayed below the average growth rate of global economy for a number of consecutive years, and it will not rise significantly in the foreseeable future. It is widely estimated that differences between China and the U.S. over bilateral trade, regional trade and global trade will still face a lot of uncertainties in the next five years. Meanwhile, the reform of multilateral trade governance mechanism represented by the World Trade Organization (WTO) is faced with many challenges. First, multilateral trade governance rules and systems still lag behind the realistic needs of global trade development; in particular, the development of digital economy and the regulating of digital trade lag behind the technological development. Second, the U.S. has changed its attitude towards multilateral trade governance. The “American First” policy adopted by the Trump administration shows that the U.S has substantially changed its attitude towards the process of trade liberalization established after World War II. Third, at a time when WTO reform is in trouble, global multilateral economic governance platforms such as G20 have very limited practical impetus to the reform. How to deal with the crisis of lack of leadership in global trade governance is the most urgent problem faced by global governance. Fourth, the expectation of decline in world economic growth will further promote the “anti-globalization” wave, resulting in a stronger trend of trade protectionism as well as weakened political will and action to improve global trade governance.
  3. Increasingly Diversified Global Financial Structure
  With a stronger trend of diversification of global financial structure, the central position of the U.S. dollar is facing more challenges. The trade war waged by the Trump administration, the widened U.S. fiscal deficit, and the U.S. manipulation of the dollar-centric SWIFT settlement system for monitoring and abusing sanctions on global economic and financial activities have all strengthened the determination of many important economies to get rid of their continued dependence on the U.S. dollar. There is an increasingly obvious trend of turning away from the U.S. dollar as international reserve currency, and countries apparently have stronger wills to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and increase gold reserves. Russia has sold U.S. bond to buy gold. Turkey has also sold U.S. dollars since 2018. Iran has announced that it will replace the U.S. dollar with euro for the valuation and settlement of its oil deals. The entry of RMB into international financial system has been accelerated. Meanwhile, Britain, France and Germany have jointly set up a new payment mechanism for trading with Iran, which is known as the Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), to circumvent U.S. sanctions against European companies. The second phase of the RMB Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has worked well since its launching and has a far-reaching implication on the choice of currencies for international trade settlement. While the U.S. dollar will remain at the core of the international financial landscape over the next five years, the world will witness an irreversible trend of “de-linking with dollar” in world markets, and this trend will be further strengthened.   4. Visible Trend of Differentiating International Investment
  International capitals on the one hand continue to focus on regions with a potential of growth, such as Asia and Africa; on the other hand, they also begin to pay more attention to investment in knowledge-intensive industries. At the same time, the institutional barriers brought about by the readjustment of cross-border investment regulations will also increase. Looking into the next five years, the trend of international investment differentiation will mainly manifest in the following two aspects. First, Asia and Africa will remain the hot potential regions for international investment. Developing countries in Asia and Africa are currently in the process of a new wave of industrialization. Relevant countries and regions are actively adopting policies to attract foreign investment to create a “hard-core” environment for economic development through establishing relevant supporting infrastructure and improving business institutional environment. Second, in the last round of globalization process, searching for the cheapest labor force used to be the main driving force for the investment by transnational corporations, and thus built up the global supply chain. However, as labor cost arbitrage continues to decline, infrastructure, workers’ skills and labor productivity will become important factors for attracting international investment. Value chains of almost all industries are beginning to show more dependence on R&D and innovation as well as a decline of the proportion of value in actual production. Correspondingly, developed countries will for sure make more efforts in improving and readjusting the regulatory measures in order to maintain the advantages of their industrial chain, and the institutional and technical barriers faced by transnational investment will become more and more complex.
  5. Intensified Competition in Digital Economy
  The accelerated development of 5G and artificial intelligence drives the economic development into a digital age. The digital economic divide between countries will become a new problem for development. With technical and capital threshold, digital economy will give birth to a new paradigm of competition and cooperation between countries. Historic experience shows that each economic downturn brings about a time with most intensive technological innovation. It is foreseeable that the digital economy characterized by 5G and artificial intelligence will achieve rapid development in the next decade, and the integration of digitization and industry will become the core of industrial competition among countries. More and more countries will regard the digital economy as an important direction for future industrial development, and substantially increase investment in related infrastructure and R&D areas. It is worth noting that the digital transformation of industries is helping traditional industrial nations to regain competitiveness, and that the United States and some traditional European industrial nations including Germany, France, Italy and Britain are seeking to restore global manufacturing leadership by advancing digital industrial strategies. Therefore, the competition and gaming in the field of global digital economy will be further intensified in the future.   Opportunity and Focuses of Deepening Benefit Integration among BRICS States
  The increased risks and challenges of global economic uncertainty resulting from the restructuring of the world economy are both a challenge and an important opportunity for deepening BRICS cooperation. On the one hand, the slowdown of world economic growth is not conducive to the development transformation of BRICS states. On the other hand, the readjustment of the world economic pattern has also injected new impetus into the deepening cooperation among the BRICS states. The BRICS states, for example, will give more thought to the demands of developing countries in promoting democratic reform of global economic governance rules. The current world economic situation has also prompted BRICS states to expand their mutual investment and trade to address the risks of economic downturns. The BRICS Action Plan on Innovation Cooperation (2017-2020) and that the 11th meeting of BRICS leaders was themed “Economic growth for the future of innovation” and the subtopic “Strengthening cooperation in science, technology and innovation” was listed as one of the top priorities reflect that only through enhanced cooperation can BRICS states better address the challenges posed by the trend of world economic development.
  Looking back over the past decade, the BRICS as a whole has risen significantly in world economic landscape and has become an important force affecting the readjustment of the world economic and political landscape. Given the diversity of cultural backgrounds, historical traditions and political systems among the BRICS states, the key to creating a systematic framework of cooperation within a decade is that a convergence point of common interests has been found. Seeking common ground while reserving differences as well as seeking shared development have become the basis of BRICS cooperation. Faced with the challenges posed by the world economic restructuring, the BRICS states can only achieve a steady rise of their voice and influence as a whole in global governance by further deepening pragmatic cooperation and continuous expanding integration of their interests. Specifically, the BRICS states should strengthen cooperation in the following three areas to enhance the depth and viscosity of the integration of interests.
  1. Enhance Institutional Discourse in Global Governance and Institutional Viscosity for Integration of Interests
  The BRICS states as an important group force driving the reform of the global governance system to move into a more fair, just and equitable direction has every necessity to strengthen its institutional voice in global governance system. For example, developing countries remain underrepresented in the International Monetary Fund as a result that the Fund’s 15th round of the total share check failed to increase the size of its share or adjust its share, including the absence of adjustments in favor of emerging and developing countries. The BRICS states should strengthen their joint action capacity to enhance institutional discourse, actively promote the IMF’s 16th round of its total share review to follow the consensus on reform agreed upon in 2010, and continue to advance IMF share and governance reform.   At present, the BRICS states have set up quite a number of dialogue mechanisms for cooperation, from leaders’ meetings to ministerial dialogues. All these mechanisms have repeatedly stressed that BRICS states want to enhance global governance representation and promote the participation of emerging markets and developing countries in global decision-making. However, there are still obvious deficiencies among the BRICS states in coordination of positions such as WTO reform and relevant UN organizations and institutions reform. Although the BRICS states continue to advocate in the international community for promoting the maintenance of a multilateral trading system and a balanced, open and transparent reform process, they are limited to the expression of political consensus and lack of concrete action plans. The BRICS states have yet to raise WTO reform to a specific common position and common interest coordination level, failing to present a concrete position paper on joint reform. Therefore, the first step to enhance the institutional voice of the BRICS states in global governance system is to propose a “BRICS proposal” on key international organizational reform, which is also the key to increasing the depth and viscosity of the interests of the BRICS states.
  2. Build an Open World Economic System and Expand Space for Integration of BRICS Interests
  Most BRICS states are faced with double challenge of structural readjustment and decline in growth, and deepening cooperation among them also face both tangible and intangible institutional challenges brought about by the differences in the internal business environment of member states. Especially in the context of weakening world economic growth and rising risks of economic downturn, various trends of economic protectionism, populism and “anti-globalization” are likely to further promote the will and actions of governments to adopt measures for economic protection. According to the global trade early warning database of the UK Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), eight developed member states of G20 implemented a total of 5310 protectionist measures in 2009-2018, with an average of 663.8 per state. The number of protectionist measures imposed by the U.S. from 2009 to 2018 was up to 1693, ranking first in the world, with an average of 169.3 per year, of which 197 were adopted in 2018, an increase of 28.8% over 2017. This shows that developed economies are a major source of global trade protectionism. But it’s worth noting that one of the BRICS states India has introduced 919 protectionist measures over the same period, among which 107 were added in 2018. Protectionist measures added in 2018 by the other four member states are as follows: 62 by Brazil, 51 by China, 19 by South Africa and 13 by Russia.   President Xi Jinping stressed at the 2017 BRICS Business Forum that “economic cooperation is the foundation of the BRICS mechanism. We should closely focus on this main line, implement the BRICS Economic Partnership Strategy, promote the institutionalization and solidization of cooperation in various fields, and continuously increase the value of BRICS cooperation”. For the BRICS states, building an open world economic system requires opening markets to each other and enhancing trade ties among member states, first and foremost. At the same time, we will further promote domestic structural reform, provide a long-term institutional guarantee for infrastructure construction and development financing, continuously improve and maintain a fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment in member states, and create a sound institutional environment for encouragement of investment and innovation. The World Bank 2019 Global Business Report shows that the BRICS states have improved their business environment, most notably in China, with its global business environment ranking jumping from 78th in 2018 to 46th in 2019, while in contrast, Russia ranks 31st, India 77th, South Africa 82nd and Brazil 109th. But compared with developed countries, the overall business environment in BRICS states remains markedly backward. Only by continuously optimizing the business environment, enhancing the vitality of domestic economic development and increasing global competitiveness can the BRICS states attract more international investment, thus expanding a greater space for integration of interests for BRICS future cooperation.
  3. Strengthen Political Mutual Trust and Deepen Integration of Interests among BRICS States
  In global governance, trust deficits are the root cause of governance deficits. For BRICS cooperation, the depth of integration of interests among BRICS states can be increased only by enhancing political trust. At present, the BRICS states are making active efforts in building a new partnership in industrial revolution, and they have reached consensus on scientific and technological innovation as a major driving force for economic growth and a key area for shaping future social competitiveness. However, it would be very hard for the BRICS states to deepen their scientific and technological cooperation if there’s no solid political trust as basis. The new industrial revolution is a crucial opportunity for development. The BRICS states should continue to strengthen top-level design and political trust, so as to provide a solid political guarantee for integration of interests.   Conclusion
  The development of BRICS states benefits from the globalization process, and it is in the fundamental interests of BRICS states to promote the building of an open world economic system. In the new stage of the current readjustment of the world economic pattern and the upgraded reform of international economic governance rules, the BRICS states continue to deepen cooperation and strengthen integration of interests, which not only benefits their own development, but also helps with the strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive development of the world economy. China, as the world second largest economy and the biggest one in the BRICS, has played an exemplary role and made substantial contribution to the building of an open world economic system. China International Import Expo as a major initiative to open up its market has provided a new platform for deepening the integration of interests among BRICS states. In general, faced with the challenges posed by the world economic restructuring, the BRICS cooperation mechanism can only make greater contributions to the building of a world with lasting peace and common prosperity by deepening the integration of their interests.
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