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随着互联网金融的进一步发展,众筹已经成为中青年创业、创新的推动力量。众筹平台项目达成率是投融资人的决策参考因素,也是平台经营效率、经营业绩的重要衡量指标。基于中国众筹平台项目达成率普遍偏低的问题,本文运用二分类Logistic回归模型,探究影响众筹项目筹资结果的主要因素;实证结果显示,筹资人是否提供社交媒体联系方式、项目目标金额、项目筹资期限、项目被分享的次数以及部分项目分类是影响项目成败的主要因素。本文基于实证结果,进一步建立项目达成概率预测模型,依靠上述指标预测项目成功的可能性概率,并将从众筹平台、筹资人、投资人三个维度提出具有针对性的建议。
With the further development of Internet finance, crowdfunding has become a driving force for entrepreneurship and innovation in middle-aged and young people. The success rate of crowdfunding platform projects is a reference factor for decision-making of investors and financiers and is also an important measure of the operating efficiency and operating performance of the platform. Based on the generally low attainment rate of China crowdfunding platform projects, this paper uses two-category Logistic regression model to explore the main factors that affect the crowdfunding results. The empirical results show whether the fund-raisers provide social media contact information, project target amount, Project funding deadline, the number of projects were shared and part of the project classification is the main factor affecting the success or failure of the project. Based on the empirical results, this paper further establishes the probabilistic predictive model for project achievement and predicts the probability of project success by relying on the above indicators. It will put forward targeted proposals from the three dimensions of crowdfunding platform, fund-raising and investors.