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东亚是指中国、日本和四个新兴工业经济体(韩国、台湾、香港、台湾和新加坡),以及东盟经济体。东亚第一波高增长由日本引领,并迅速扩散到四个新兴工业化经济体和一些东盟国家。这是第一代东亚共同体的崛起。东亚第二波高增长是由中国引领的,目前正被扩散到整个东亚区域。比较而言,中国引领的第二代东亚共同体在经济上比日本引领的第一代更为强大。中国不仅是东亚增长的引擎,也是区域经济整合的催化剂。然后,在未来相当长的时期内,中国还不能改变东亚地缘政治的形势。中国“和平崛起”这一理念并未得到东亚国家的广泛认同。中国与其他东亚经济体的总体关系仍将是“政冷经热”的局面。美国不断在东亚增强其政治和战略地位,使得中国与其他东亚经济体的新兴关系更为复杂化。因此,东亚现有的地区秩序将继续被不确定性和不稳定性因素所破坏。东亚共同体不仅需要建立在可持续的经济增长和地区整合的基础上,还需要建立在相互具有和睦安全关系的基础之上,因此在未来还有很长的路要走。
East Asia refers to China, Japan and four emerging industrial economies (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore) and ASEAN economies. The first wave of high growth in East Asia was led by Japan and rapidly spread to four newly industrialized economies and some ASEAN countries. This is the rise of the first East Asian Community. The second wave of high growth in East Asia is led by China and is now spreading to the entire East Asian region. In comparison, the second-generation East Asian community led by China is economically more powerful than the first generation led by Japan. China is not only an engine of growth in East Asia, but also a catalyst for regional economic integration. Then, for a long time to come, China will not be able to change the geo-political situation in East Asia. The concept of “peaceful rise” in China has not been widely recognized by East Asian countries. The overall relationship between China and other East Asian economies will remain “hot and cold”. The United States has continuously strengthened its political and strategic position in East Asia, further complicating the emerging relations between China and other East Asian economies. Therefore, the existing regional order in East Asia will continue to be undermined by uncertainties and instability. The East Asia Community needs to build not only on the basis of sustainable economic growth and regional integration but also on the basis of mutual security and harmony, so there is still a long way to go in the future.