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通过使用中国1994～2008年省级面板数据,对中国分税制改革以来,体制外分权对地方财政风险的影响进行了实证检验。检验发现:体制外分权不但没有增加地方财政风险,反而一定程度上降低了地方财政风险。这意味着,在样本数据期间内,体制外分权一定程度上规避了市场经济体制改革过程中的风险,但进一步分地区检验发现,体制外分权过高或过低都不利于地方财政风险的降低,这表明体制外分权对地方财政风险的影响并非单向的,而是存在一个最优适度分权水平。
Through the use of provincial panel data from 1994 to 2008 in China, this paper empirically tests the impact of institutional decentralization on local fiscal risks since the tax-sharing reform in China. Tests found that: the decentralization of the system not only failed to increase the local financial risk, but to some extent reduce the local financial risk. This means that in the sample data period, the decentralization of the system to some extent to avoid the risk of market economic reform process, but further sub-regional inspection found that excessive or low institutional decentralization is not conducive to local financial risk This shows that the impact of institutional decentralization on local fiscal risks is not unidirectional, but there is an optimal level of decentralization.