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1961年,经济学家G. J. stigler提出了情报的经济学法则,即成本效益法则:当一位购买者在市场上买东西时,要寻找所购物的最便宜的价格。当他觉得继续寻找所费的力与找到更便宜的价格所得的利相当时,他就会停止寻找。据此,美国情报学家R. H. Orr进一步提出了科学家行为的成本效益模型。根据这个模型,科技人员在查寻情报时,查寻行为的发生与停止情报源的选择等一系列决策,都是由耗费与效益之比决定的。当然这个比值往往只是当事人有意识或无意识的主观预测。这一理论似乎是很合情合理的,有说服力的。然而,事实并非如此。一些学者,如
In 1961, the economist G. J. stigler proposed the economics of intelligence, the cost-effectiveness rule: When a buyer buys something in the market, he wants to find the cheapest price to buy. When he feels that he will continue to search for the same amount of power as finding cheaper prices, he will stop looking. Accordingly, US information scientist R. H. Orr further proposed a cost-effective model of scientist behavior. According to this model, a series of decisions, such as the occurrence of search behavior and the selection of information sources, are determined by the ratio of cost to benefit when scientists and technicians search for intelligence. Of course, this ratio is often just subjective predictions of conscious or unconscious parties. This theory seems very reasonable and convincing. However, it is not. Some scholars, such as