当前上海和全国物价上涨是自2003年以来的第三轮上涨周期。本文从本轮价格上涨的基本面开始,全面系统分析影响当前物价形势的因素与环境,并从宏观、微观和周期性因素的角度,对本轮物价后续走势做出预期判断。总体看,目前CPI涨幅仍处于可控区间,食品类价格上涨仍是结构主因,但面临的持续上涨压力值得高度重视。2011年物价上涨的压力仍较大,影响物价产生波动的各种因素仍将在较长时期内存在,对外经济制度因素形成的被动货币超发、成本推动型的价格上涨、国内外投机炒作因素将继续存在。从周期性因素看,当前正处于物价上涨上升阶段的中期。总体判断,整个物价形势不完全是单边上涨趋势,也可能呈现为波动态势,从中期趋势看,物价波动将成为常态。 At present, the price increases in Shanghai and the whole nation are the third round of rising periods since 2003. Starting from the fundamentals of the current round of price increases, this paper comprehensively and systematically analyzes the factors and environments that affect the current price situation and makes expected judgments on the follow-up movements of the current round of prices from the perspective of macroeconomic, micro and cyclical factors. Overall, the current CPI increase is still in a controlled range, food prices are still the main cause of the structure, but the continued pressure of upward pressure should be highly valued. The pressure of rising prices in 2011 is still large, and the various factors that affect the price fluctuations will still exist for a long period of time. The passive economic factors such as over-payment of foreign currencies, cost-driven price increases, speculative factors at home and abroad Will continue to exist. From a cyclical point of view, the current period of rising prices is in the middle stage. The overall judgment is that the entire price situation is not entirely unilateral upward trend, it may also show a volatile trend, from the medium-term trend, price fluctuations will become the norm.