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为了解决装备战场损伤仿真系统模型中各子模型之间的不兼容性问题,可以直接利用子模型提供的相关结论。采用条件熵理论衡量了利用子模型结论过程中所导致的不确定性增大问题;提出了不确定度概念用于定量分析各输入参数对模型不确定性的影响程度;采用贝叶斯网络技术研究了多个子模型构成的复合模型描述问题,以及相应的条件熵计算问题;最后介绍了一个关于装备战场损伤的单一模型和复合模型的不确定性分析案例。
In order to solve the problem of incompatibility among the sub-models in the battlefield damage simulation system model, the related conclusions provided by the sub-model can be directly used. The conditional entropy theory was used to measure the uncertainty increase caused by the sub-model conclusions. The concept of uncertainty was proposed to quantitatively analyze the influence of each input parameter on the model uncertainty. Bayesian network technique The complex model description problem composed by multiple sub-models and the corresponding problem of conditional entropy calculation are studied. Finally, a case of uncertainty analysis of single model and compound model of battlefield damage is introduced.