论文部分内容阅读
在分析了社会保障支出影响就业机制的基础上,运用时间序列经济计量技术,对1978～2008年我国就业量、社会保障支出、资本投入、技术进步和工资水平五个变量之间的关系进行了实证研究,发现这五个变量之间存在长期协整关系。进一步的因果关系检验结果显示,社会保障支出、资本投入、技术进步和工资水平对就业量无Granger影响。其政策含义在于,应充分重视这五个变量之间的长期有机联系,控制好包括社会保障支出在内的经济变量,以实现社会保障与就业的良性互动。
Based on the analysis of the employment mechanism affected by social security expenditure, the paper uses the time series econometric techniques to analyze the relationship between the five variables of employment, social security expenditure, capital investment, technological progress and wage level in China from 1978 to 2008 Empirical study found that there is a long-term cointegration relationship among the five variables. Further causality test results show that social security expenditure, capital investment, technological progress and wage levels have no Granger effect on employment. The policy implication is that due attention should be paid to the long-term organic links among the five variables and the economic variables including social security expenditures should be controlled so as to realize the benign interaction between social security and employment.