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构建全国统一的碳市场迫在眉睫,深入研究中国碳市场的一体化程度问题能够为全国统一碳市场的构建提供理论支持。文章以中国试点省市碳市场数据为样本,基于价格传导机制视角,利用最新发展的有向无环图(DAG)等方法首次探讨了中国碳市场的一体化程度问题。研究结果表明:中国碳市场在一体化方面已取得一定成果,但整体一体化程度依然有待提高;湖北碳市场和广东碳市场影响其他试点省市碳市场的程度更高,中国碳市场局部中心化趋势凸显。文章从滚动时间窗口角度进一步论证了上述实证结果的稳健性。在此基础上,首次构建中国碳市场价格传导理论框架,通过经济基础说和市场传染说等理论进一步分析了中国碳市场之间相互影响的传导机理,并详细解释了中国碳市场整体一体化程度不高和局部中心化凸显的内在原因,可为全国统一碳市场的启动提供理论与实证支撑。基于上述实证结果,文章从五个方面给出了相关政策建议。
It is imminent to build a unified national carbon market. A thorough study of the degree of integration of China’s carbon market can provide theoretical support for the construction of a unified national carbon market. Based on the carbon market data of pilot provinces and cities in China, the article first explores the degree of integration of China’s carbon market based on the perspective of price transmission mechanism and the latest developed Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The results show that: China’s carbon market has achieved some results in the integration, but the overall level of integration still needs to be improved; Hubei carbon market and Guangdong carbon market affect the other pilot provinces and cities have a higher carbon market, local carbon market in China The trend is highlighted. The article further demonstrates the robustness of the above empirical results from the rolling time window. Based on this, for the first time, the framework of China’s carbon market price transmission is first constructed and the transmission mechanism of the mutual influence among China’s carbon markets is further analyzed through theories such as economic fundamentals and market contagion, and a detailed explanation of the overall integration of China’s carbon market Not high and localized central highlights the intrinsic causes, can provide the theoretical and empirical support for the start of the national unified carbon market. Based on the above empirical results, the article gives relevant policy suggestions from five aspects.