以往大水漫灌式的财政刺激不会再出现,仅凭财政赤字扩张的需求刺激,难以使经济有明显反弹。当前,中国经济在不断升级的稳增长政策下确实出现了短期企稳,但L型趋势并未改变。接下来稳增长的措施和手段中,真正让人期待的是财政政策,新一轮主动的财政赤字扩张是大势所趋。在这种背景下,各大类资产价格走势将受到不同的影响。笔者认为,新一轮财政赤字扩张将呈现如下特点。 In the past, large-scale flood irrigation-type fiscal stimulus will not appear again, just by stimulating the demand for the expansion of the fiscal deficit, making it difficult to make a clear rebound in the economy. At present, there is indeed a short-term stabilization of China’s economy under the escalating steady growth policy, but the L-shaped trend has not changed. The next steady growth measures and means, the real people look forward to fiscal policy, a new round of active budget deficit expansion is the trend. In this context, the price trend of various types of assets will be subject to different effects. The author believes that the new round of fiscal deficit expansion will show the following characteristics.