论文部分内容阅读
目前的文献忽视了持有国外债权贬值对中国的影响,也忽视了这一背景下政府财政与货币政策的互动效应。通过构建含“债权压力”的开放经济DSGE模型,本文采用“贝叶斯”估计方法进行了理论研究。研究发现:(1)财政政策对货币政策响应、货币政策对财政政策不响应是符合我国宏观经济事实特征的模式选择。(2)债权压力冲击在短期内会提升社会总产出,但持续期非常短。(3)地方政府公共支出的冲击效应大于中央支出的政策效应。(4)外部产出冲击和地方财政支出冲击对社会总产出的波动贡献较大;外部产出冲击对中国通货膨胀的波动影响也日益增大。
The current literature ignores the impact of holding devaluation of foreign claims on China and ignores the interactive effect of government fiscal and monetary policies in this context. By constructing an open economy DSGE model with “debt pressure ”, this paper uses “Bayesian ” estimation method to conduct a theoretical study. The findings are as follows: (1) The response of fiscal policy to monetary policy, the unresponsiveness of monetary policy to fiscal policy is the mode choice that is in line with the factual characteristics of macroeconomic in our country. (2) Debt pressure shocks will increase social output in the short term, but the duration is very short. (3) The impact of public expenditure on local government is greater than the policy effect of central government spending. (4) External output impact and impact of local fiscal expenditure contribute more to the fluctuation of total social output; the impact of external output impact on the inflation of China is also increasing.