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本文通过将Novy改进的引力模型进行分解,发现影响外贸发展的主要因素是经济的发展和贸易成本的下降,通过结合中国、印度和20个国家近15年的贸易和经济发展数据,验证了Novy理论的普适性;在此基础上,本文还将中国与20个国家在中国加入WTO前后和金融危机爆发前后的贸易变化进行经验分析,得到的基本结论是:加入WTO后贸易成本的贡献度明显上升(提升17%),说明加入WTO后良好的贸易环境和各种壁垒的下降确实降低了我国的贸易成本,但经济增长对外贸发展仍然起到至关重要的推动作用(提升了51%)。而金融危机爆发之后,贸易成本的增加是导致金融危机后我国外贸下滑的主要原因,虽然经济增长对外贸有正向的贡献,但贡献度较小(仅为13%),不能弥补贸易成本的负面影响。
By decomposing Novy’s improved gravitation model, we find that the main factors influencing the development of foreign trade are the economic development and the decline of trade costs. By combining the trade and economic development data of China, India and 20 countries for nearly 15 years, On this basis, this article also empirical analysis of the changes in trade between China and 20 countries before and after China’s accession to the WTO and before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the basic conclusion is: the contribution of trade costs after joining the WTO (A 17% increase), indicating that a favorable trading environment and the decline of various barriers after China’s accession to the WTO have indeed reduced China’s trade costs. However, economic growth still plays a crucial role in promoting the development of foreign trade (an increase of 51% ). After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the increase in trade costs was the main reason for the decline of China’s foreign trade after the financial crisis. Although economic growth has made a positive contribution to foreign trade, its contribution is small (only 13%) and can not make up for the trade costs Negative impact.