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2012年3月以来,在CPI基本平稳的情况下,PPI持续下行。在这之前,两者变化幅度虽然不同,但方向基本相同。此次方向性持续分化是前所未见的新现象。本文认为这一新特征是此次反危机中政府主导的投资率迅速提高累积产生的经济结构变化的结果,其中,总需求结构的调整是CPI与PPI分化的诱因,供给侧的部门间资源转移障碍是分化的放大器。因此,作为经济结构问题表现的价格方向性分化不能简单用货币政策矫正,需要从启动民间投资、处理僵尸企业等改革入手,释放市场内生动力、降低资源转移障碍。
Since March 2012, the PPI has continued its downward trend with CPI basically stable. Prior to this, though the magnitude of the change was different, the directions were basically the same. The continuous differentiation of the direction is an unprecedented new phenomenon. This paper argues that this new feature is the result of the rapid increase in the cumulative economic structure led by the government-led investment rate in this anti-crisis. The adjustment of aggregate demand structure is the incentive for the differentiation of CPI and PPI, and the interdepartmental resource transfer on the supply side Barriers are differentiated amplifiers. Therefore, the differentiation of price orientation as an issue of economic structure can not be corrected simply by monetary policy. It is necessary to start with the reform of starting non-governmental investment and handling zombie enterprises so as to release the market endogenous motivation and reduce the obstacles of resource transfer.