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为了提高棉铃虫年发生量长期预报的准确性,掌握综合防治的主动权,笔者将本所(赣北平原洲地)多年测报观察的数据资料,用棉铃虫的前代(越冬)基数、雌蛾比、旬平均气温、雨量、益虫、农作物布局。棉花现蕾期、棉铃虫的主要寄主转换等与棉铃虫年发生量(蛾、卵、幼虫量)进行两数相关分析,若相关系数达到“显著”则再计算各直线回归预测式,然后进行多因子综合相关试测。通过对多年有关资料的验算和1979年长期预报实践,今年5月下旬综合相关预报值与全年20瓦黑光灯下棉铃虫实发蛾量与田间百株棉花平均棉铃虫全年累计卵虫量基本一致,按级预报其准确性相当高,对指导大面积棉铃虫防治有一定参考价值,现整理报告如下。
In order to improve the accuracy of long-term forecast of annual occurrence of cotton bollworm and master the initiative of integrated prevention and control, the author used the data of many years observation and observation of the institute (in the hinterland of the North Jiangxi Plain) Moth ratio, average temperature in ten days, rainfall, beneficial insects, crop layout Cotton budding stage, the main host transformation of cotton bollworm and the annual occurrence of cotton bollworm (moth, egg, larvae) for the two number correlation analysis, if the correlation coefficient reaches “significant” then recalculated linear regression prediction formula, and then Multifactorial related test. Through the years of relevant data and long-term forecasting practice in 1979, the integrated forecast values in late May of this year were compared with those of the 20-watt black light lamp and the average accumulated egg-weight of cotton bollworm Basically the same, according to forecast its accuracy is quite high, to guide large area bollworm prevention and treatment have some reference value, now finishing the report as follows.