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选取河南省30个农气观测站1979-2007年的冬小麦抽穗-成熟期资料和1957-2007年的气候资料,通过线性回归方法分析了河南省气候变化的趋势,结合样条插值法绘制了各因素变化倾向率的分布图。结果表明,河南省大部分地区冬小麦抽穗至成熟期天数呈延长趋势,但伊川、三门峡、林州等地有略微缩短的趋势;全省范围内越冬期≥0℃积温、总日照时数变化倾向率与冬小麦抽穗至成熟期天数变化倾向率有较高的相关性,抽穗至成熟期≥0℃积温增加,总日照时数减少都将对冬小麦抽穗至成熟期生长天数有一定的影响。
Based on the data of winter wheat heading-maturity and the climate data of 1957-2007 from 30 agricultural stations in Henan Province during 1979-2007, the trend of climate change in Henan Province was analyzed by linear regression method. Distribution of change rate of factors. The results showed that the days from heading to maturity of winter wheat tended to increase in most parts of Henan Province, but there was a slight shortening trend in Yichuan, Sanmenxia and Linzhou areas. The tendency of the accumulated temperature in winter and the total sunshine hours in the winter over the province tended to change The results showed that there was a high correlation between the tillering rate and the tillering rate of heading date to maturity of winter wheat. Increasing the accumulated temperature from heading to maturity≥0 ℃ and decreasing the total sunshine hours would have a certain impact on the number of days from heading to maturity of winter wheat.