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引入特定的宏观经济、金融和政策变量等控制变量后,本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴市场国家或地区的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响,以及近来众所关切的全球经常账户失衡问题。实证结果显示:东欧国家收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚国家或地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一。但若能够持续金融深化的努力,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲国家的宏观经济、金融和政策特征变量,对于资金流动方向并无决定性影响,但财政与货币政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。
After introducing control variables such as specific macroeconomic, financial and policy variables, this article attempts to examine the direction of capital flows and their impact on economic growth in the three major emerging market countries in Eastern Europe, East Asia and Latin America, as well as recent concerns Global current account imbalances. The empirical results show that the income level and financial deepening of Eastern European countries are still low, but as the degree of development increases, the flow of funds into the outflow in the future. The excess foreign exchange reserves, trade surpluses and outflows of capital in East Asian countries are accused of being one of the major causes of the huge current account deficit in the United States and the global current account imbalance. However, sustained financial deepening efforts could lead to a return of capital and ease the global current account imbalances. As for the variables of macroeconomic, financial and policy characteristics in Latin American countries, there is no decisive influence on the direction of capital flows. However, fiscal and monetary policies are still the key factors that determine whether capital inflows can contribute to economic growth.