【摘 要】
:
针对传统灰色Verhulst模型适应性不强的情况,借鉴离散化思想,通过对原始数据序列进行倒数生成,建立了灰色离散Verhulst模型.灰色离散Verhulst模型充分考虑了数据序列的准指数
【机 构】
:
南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,安徽工业大学经济学院
论文部分内容阅读
针对传统灰色Verhulst模型适应性不强的情况,借鉴离散化思想,通过对原始数据序列进行倒数生成,建立了灰色离散Verhulst模型.灰色离散Verhulst模型充分考虑了数据序列的准指数规律,实现了从连续形式向离散形式的转变,消除了传统灰色Verhulst模型由微分方程直接跳到差分方程所产生的误差.同时给出了两种初始条件下的灰色离散Verhulst模型的预测公式,有效地解决了传统灰色Verhulst模型预测稳定性差的问题.实例分析表明,灰色离散Verhulst模型能够显著提高模拟和预测效果.
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