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本文以1990、1995、2000、2005年的上海市土地利用遥感监测数据为基本数据源,分析了1990-2005年上海市城市空间扩展的时空特征。同时利用SLEUTH模型对城市空间扩展进行了模拟和精度验证,并对未来30年上海市城市空间扩展进行了预测。结果显示:1990-2005年,上海市城市空间扩展明显,城市面积净增加81 278hm2,净增长10.14%;在扩展的时间过程上呈现先减缓后加剧的趋势,2000-2005年城市用地扩展最为剧烈,城市面积净增加40668hm2,净增长5.08%,填海造陆是该时期城市扩展的典型特征。SLEUTH模型可以较好地模拟预测上海市城市空间扩展的时空过程,不同时期模拟与遥感监测结果的Kappa系数最高达到了0.8476;未来30年,上海市城市用地将以年平均增长率1.63%的速度扩展,2040年城市用地面积将达到152 685hm2。城市扩展将占用耕地41 824hm2,年平均占用耕地1200hm2。城市扩展的方式主要是边缘增长,东部的浦东新区沿五洲大道向海方向、南部的徐汇区沿沪闵高架路向南,以及西部的嘉定区和青浦区沿京沪高速两侧向西的地区均是未来城市扩展的主要方向。
In this paper, the data of land use remote sensing monitoring in Shanghai in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 are taken as the basic data sources, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of Shanghai urban space expansion from 1990 to 2005 are analyzed. At the same time, SLEUTH model is used to simulate and verify the urban spatial expansion, and the urban spatial expansion in Shanghai is predicted in the next 30 years. The results show that in 1990-2005, the urban space in Shanghai was expanded significantly, with a net increase of 81 278hm 2 in urban area, a net increase of 10.14%. The trend of expansion was slowed first and then intensified. The urban land expansion was the most intense in 2000-2005 The net increase of urban area was 40,668hm2, a net increase of 5.08%. Reclamation and land reclamation were typical features of urban expansion during this period. SLEUTH model can better simulate the spatial-temporal process of Shanghai urban spatial expansion. The maximum Kappa coefficient of simulation and remote sensing monitoring results reached 0.8476 in the next 30 years. In the next 30 years, the urban land in Shanghai will grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.63% Expansion, 2040 urban land area will reach 152 685hm2. The urban expansion will occupy 41,824hm2 of cultivated land, with an average of 1,200hm2 of cultivated land per year. The way of urban expansion is mainly marginal growth. The Pudong New Area of the east is along the direction of Wuzhou Avenue to the sea, the south along Shanghai Minhang Viaduct in Xuhui District and the west of Jiading District and Qingpu District are both westward along the Beijing-Shanghai Expressway Is the main direction of future city expansion.