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目的探讨北京市不同度量方式的臭氧(O_3)短期暴露水平与人群非意外死亡风险间的相关性。方法使用2009—2011年北京市O_3监测数据、人群非意外死亡数据以及其他相关气象因素等数据,采用基于泊松回归的时间序列广义线性模型(GLM),开展时间序列分析,探讨O_3短期暴露所致健康效应;考虑O_31日内浓度变异情况,本研究同时采用每日1 h最大值浓度、每日8 h最大值浓度以及每日24 h均值浓度等三类O_3暴露的不同度量方式,作为O_3短期暴露指标,并分别开展模型分析。结果研究结果表明,三类O_3暴露指标每增加10μg/m~3,均导致人群非意外死亡风险显著增加。其中,O_3每日1 h最大浓度值(lag1)每升高10μg/m~3,人群非意外死亡风险显著增加0.26%(95%CI:0.07%~0.45%);O_3每日8 h最大浓度值(lag1)每升高10μg/m~3,人群非意外死亡风险显著增加0.19%(95%CI:0.02%~0.36%);O_324 h均值浓度(lag1)每增加10μg/m~3,人群非意外死亡风险显著增加0.46%(95%CI:0.03%~0.89%)。此外,O_3暴露增加也会引起65岁以上老人及女性非意外死亡风险的显著增加。结论研究区域内O_3短期暴露水平的提升对于人群非意外死亡的增加具有显著影响,O_324 h均值浓度与人群非意外死亡增加的关联更密切。
Objective To explore the correlation between the ozone (O 3) short-term exposure and the risk of non-accidental death among different measures in Beijing. Methods The data of O3 monitoring data, non-accidental death data and other related meteorological factors from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing were used to analyze the time series of GLM using Poisson regression. In the present study, three measures of O_3 exposure, including maximum daily concentration at 1 h, maximum daily concentration at 8 h and mean daily 24 h concentration, were used as the short-term determinants of O 3 Exposure indicators, and were carried out model analysis. Results The results showed that every 10 μg / m 3 increase of the three O 3 exposure indicators led to a significant increase in the risk of non-accidental death in the population. Among them, the risk of non-accidental death increased significantly by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.07% -0.45%) for every 10 μg / m 3 increase of O_3 at 1 h per day. O_3 maximal daily concentration of 8 h The risk of non-accidental death was significantly increased by 0.19% (95% CI: 0.02% -0.36%) for each 10 μg / m 3 increase in lag1; for each 10 μg / m 3 increase in the mean lag1 concentration The risk of non-accidental death increased significantly by 0.46% (95% CI: 0.03% -0.89%). In addition, the increased exposure to O 3 can also cause a significant increase in the risk of unintended death among elderly people over 65 and women. Conclusion The increase of O 3 short-term exposure in the study area has a significant effect on the increase of non-accidental death in the study area. The mean concentration of O 3 324 h is more closely related to the increase of non-accidental death in the population.