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碳减排已成为中国未来一段时期的重要温室气体减排目标。利用1993-2014年中国季度宏观经济与碳排放数据,分析财政政策变动对二氧化碳排放的影响。结果表明:(1)财政政策变动在短期对生产型二氧化碳作用更为明显,而在中长期对消费型二氧化碳作用显著;(2)政府环保税收能够有效缓解二氧化碳排放,政府环保支出占财政支出的比例越高,对二氧化碳排放的控制程度越大。因此,未来政府应增大环保支出比重,利用“绿色”采购调节消费者和生产企业的资源消费偏好,减少碳排放。同时,在制定税收政策时,可以适当调整环保税种的征税环节,将征税范围逐步从生产者扩大到生产者和消费者,通过降低需求来调节供给,限制高耗能、高排放企业的数量,最终达到调整企业产业结构和低碳生产的目的。
Carbon emission reductions have become China’s key greenhouse gas reduction targets for some time to come. Based on China’s quarterly macroeconomic and carbon emissions data from 1993 to 2014, this paper analyzes the impact of fiscal policy changes on carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that: (1) The change of fiscal policy is more obvious in the short term for the production of carbon dioxide, while it plays a significant role in the long-term consumption of carbon dioxide; (2) The government environmental tax can effectively reduce the carbon dioxide emissions, and the government expenditure on environmental protection accounts for the financial expenditure The higher the proportion, the greater the degree of control over carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, in the future, the government should increase the proportion of environmental expenditures and use “green” procurement to regulate consumer preferences of consumers and manufacturing enterprises and reduce carbon emissions. At the same time, when formulating tax policies, tax levies for environmental taxes can be appropriately adjusted, the scope of tax levying can be gradually extended from producers to producers and consumers, the supply can be adjusted by reducing demand, the enterprises with high energy consumption and high emissions can be restricted Quantity, and ultimately achieve the purpose of adjusting the industrial structure and low-carbon production.