目前我国的通胀主要还在上游产业,它会进一步向中下游产业传导,当2—3年内完成一个传导后,如果仍能保持4%—5%的话,还是属于可接受的水平不平衡、不明朗、不确定,这是2011年国内外经济前景的主要特点。面对这样的格局,最好不要轻易相信权威的结论,也不能轻易下结论。全球经济首先体现出来的是流动性不平衡。实体经济的流动性紧缺,虚拟经济的流动性过剩。一方面,因为2008年金融危机之前,包括共同基金、对冲基金、主权基金等在内的数以十万亿美元的资金投资于创新金融和衍生金融产品上。金融危机后,投资于创新金融产品 At present, inflation in our country is still mainly in the upstream industries. As it conducts further to the middle and lower reaches of the industry, it will still be an acceptable level of imbalance if it can still maintain 4% -5% after 2-3 years of completion of one transmission. Clear and uncertain, which is the main feature of the economic outlook at home and abroad in 2011. Faced with this pattern, it is best not to easily believe the conclusion of authority, nor can it be concluded easily. The first manifestation of the global economy is liquidity imbalance. The real economy, lack of liquidity, excess liquidity in the fictitious economy. On the one hand, before the financial crisis of 2008, a few trillion dollars of funds, including mutual funds, hedge funds and sovereign funds, invested in innovative finance and derivative financial products. After the financial crisis, invest in innovative financial products