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官员交流业已成为我国党政干部管理体制的常态与趋势。在理论上,官员交流对社会保障影响是不确定的,同时,不同性质官员的交流任职对社会保障的影响也存在差异。本文基于2003-2012年我国省长、省委书记交流任职样本与全国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的省级面板数据,采用双重差分法实证评估我国官员交流对社会保障事业发展的影响。研究发现:我国省长、省委书记的频繁交流任职并不利于社会保障事业发展,且省长交流对社会保障的影响强于省委书记交流对社会保障的影响;另外,官员任期与社会保障水平呈“U型曲线”关系。最后得出的研究结论是稳健的,并为促进我国社会保障事业发展和深化干部管理制度改革提供有益参考。
Official exchange has become the normal and trend of the management system of party and government cadres in our country. In theory, the influence of officials exchange on social security is uncertain. At the same time, the influence of officials of different nature on social security is also different. Based on the panel data of provincial governors and provincial party secretaries exchanged between 2003 and 2012 and the provincial panel data of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China, this paper empirically evaluates the influence of officials exchange on the development of social security in our country by means of double difference method. The study found that the frequent exchange and appointment of the governor of our country and the secretary of the provincial party committee are not conducive to the development of the social security undertaking. Moreover, the influence of provincial governors’ exchange on social security is stronger than the exchange of provincial party secretaries on social security. In addition, the tenure of officials and social security Horizontal was “U-shaped curve ” relationship. Finally, the conclusion of the study is steady, and provide a useful reference for promoting the development of China’s social security undertaking and deepening the reform of the cadre management system.