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本文通过构建动态的城乡二元选择模型,分析了农村进城务工者在返乡务农与留在城镇扩大生产之间的权衡过程,得到结论:破除城乡间人口迁徙的制度障碍,有助于扩大农村创业者的信贷渠道,优化城乡劳动力配置结构,进而提高城乡综合劳动生产率,促进经济增长。数值模拟的结果验证了理论模型并得到的结论,发现无论在利率管制还是在利率市场化的环境中,降低城镇地区进入成本都对刺激信贷扩张与经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但是在利率管制的环境中,这种作用更强。
By constructing a dynamic urban-rural dual option model, this paper analyzes the trade-off process between rural migrant workers returning to their hometown and expanding their production in urban areas. It concludes that institutional barriers to the removal of urban-rural migrants contribute to the expansion of Rural entrepreneurs credit channels, optimizing the urban and rural labor force structure, thereby enhancing the comprehensive urban and rural labor productivity and promote economic growth. The results of numerical simulation validate the theoretical model and conclude that it is significant to reduce the entry cost of urban areas in stimulating credit expansion and economic growth in both interest rate control and market-based interest rates. However, This effect is stronger.