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伴随国际海洋形势的变化和美国全球战略的调整,美国国内再度掀起关于是否应当加入1982年《联合国海洋法公约》的热议。与此前几轮政策辩论大多集中于富有争议的国际海底制度问题明显不同,当前政府和社会各界一致认为美国加入《公约》的必要性和紧迫性在上升。但是,“反公约”势力仍有较大政治影响力,他们以“国家安全”为理由,对《公约》发起意识形态进攻。由于美国仍然倚重超强的海洋实力实现海洋利益,同时希望与《公约》讨价还价,确保获益最大化,预计奥巴马政府第二任期内难以重启《公约》审查工作。今后,美国是否会在批约问题上采取实质性举动,将成为研判美国亚太战略和对华政策走向的一个“风向标”。中国需做好应对美国在中长期内加入《公约》的预案,处理届时会被激活的中美海洋法律纠纷,化解美国因素对中国海洋安全利益带来的负面冲击。
With the changes in the international maritime situation and the readjustment of the U.S. global strategy, the United States has once again started a heated debate on whether or not it should accede to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. With the previous round of policy debates mostly focused on the controversial issue of the international seabed system, the current government and all sectors of the community agree that the U.S. necessity and urgency for joining the Convention are on the rise. However, the “anti-convention” forces still have greater political influence. They use “national security” as an excuse to launch an ideological offensive on the “Convention.” As the United States still relies on the superior maritime power to realize the interests of the oceans and hopes to bargain with the “Convention” and ensure maximum benefits, it is estimated that it will be difficult for the Obama administration to restart the review of the “Covenant” during the second term. In the future, whether the United States will take substantive action on the issue of ratification will become a “benchmark” for the purpose of judging the U.S. Asia-Pacific strategic and China policy. China needs to make plans to cope with the United States’ accession to the “Convention” in the medium and long term, deal with maritime law disputes that will be activated at that time, and resolve the negative impact of the U.S. factors on China’s maritime security interests.