介绍了灰色 GM(1,1)模型基本原理及建模程序 ,列举了该模型应用于金矿床深部定量成矿预测研究的 3个具体实例 ,通过对预测结果的综合对比分析 ,认为矿体自身变化程度及模型本身单调性函数特征是影响预测精度的主要因素 ,提出了矿体变化程度及规律研究是有效应用 GM(1,1)模型进行成功预测的前提和基础 . The basic principle and modeling procedure of gray GM (1,1) model are introduced. Three specific examples of this model applied to the deep quantitative ore-forming prediction of gold deposits are listed. By comprehensive comparison and analysis of the predicted results, it is considered that the orebody itself The degree of change and the monotonous function of the model itself are the main factors affecting the prediction accuracy. It is put forward that the research on the degree and regularity of ore body changes is the prerequisite and basis for the successful application of the GM (1,1) model.