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为解决传统安全性定量分析方法不能描述航天器总装这一复杂人-机-环系统的失效数据波动性和非严格逻辑关系的问题,结合生产实际,采用问卷调查的方法找出影响总装事故的风险因素,即导致事故的事件发生可能性、输入事件对输出事件的影响程度等。在验证调查数据的有效性之后,应用基于模糊数的模糊因果图(FCD),计算某航天器与支架车连接作业的事故风险可能性。提出原因事件重要度的计算方法。通过计算发现,人员注意力和发动机保护罩作用是导致发动机损伤的关键事件。与模糊事故树(FFT)、贝叶斯网络(BN)重要度计算结果对比表明,模糊重要度计算结果能反映事故发生可能性对原因事件发生可能性值的增减的敏感度。
In order to solve the problem that traditional quantitative analysis of safety can not describe the failure data volatility and non-strict logic relationship of complex man-machine-ring system of spacecraft final assembly, the method of questionnaire is used to find out the factors that influence the final assembly accident Risk factors, that is, the likelihood of the incident causing the incident, the extent to which the incident is affected by the incident, and so on. After verifying the validity of the survey data, a fuzzy causality diagram (FCD) based on fuzzy numbers is applied to calculate the possibility of accident risk of a spacecraft connected to the carrier car. Put forward the calculation method of reason event importance. Through calculation, it is found that the attention of personnel and the role of engine hood are the key events leading to engine damage. Comparisons with fuzzy result tree (FFT) and Bayesian network (BN) importance degree results show that the fuzzy importance degree calculation results can reflect the sensitivity of accident probability to the increase or decrease of probability of occurrence of causal event.