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如果一切顺利,以当前美元价值衡量,中国将于2021年超越美国成为世界第一大经济体(若以实际值衡量,中国将更快超越美国)。中国的人均收入将达到低端高收入国家的现有水平。然而,尽管中国经济前进势头迅猛,未来10年却仍面临一些风险。最紧迫的风险是欧洲经济的持续停滞甚至衰退。过去10年,中国的整体经济增长约三分之一来自出口增长,而出口的约三分之一是去了欧盟。如果欧洲的状况继续恶化,中国的增长也将被拉低。
If all goes well, China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2021, measured by the current dollar value (China will surpass the United States faster if measured in real terms). China’s per capita income will reach the current level of low-income and high-income countries. However, despite the rapid economic growth in China, it still faces some risks in the next 10 years. The most pressing risk is the continued stagnation or even recession of the European economy. In the past 10 years, about one-third of China’s overall economic growth came from export growth, while about one-third of exports went to the EU. If the situation in Europe continues to deteriorate, China’s growth will also be pulled down.