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根据电网规制政策变动的特点,利用实物期权方法分析了规制政策的不确定性对电网投资的影响。模型及算例结果表明,在政策确定的情形下,规制机构的成本补偿政策能够促进电网企业投资,而补偿政策变动的不确定性则会提高投资的临界值。并且,随着补偿政策变动概率与价格(或者企业利润)的相关系数的提高,投资临界值也将提高。
According to the characteristics of the regulatory changes of power grids, this paper analyzes the impact of the uncertainty of regulatory policies on the investment of power grids by using the real option method. The results of the model and the example show that the cost compensation policy of regulatory agencies can promote the investment of power grid enterprises when the policy is determined, and the uncertainty of compensation policy changes will increase the critical value of investment. And, as the correlation coefficient between the probability of change in compensation policy and price (or firm profit) increases, the investment threshold will also increase.