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2009年天然橡胶市场演绎了强劲的牛市行情,不过主要是受国家刺激政策所推动,基本面恢复相对滞后。2010年政策效应还将延续,但力度将有所减弱,宏观经济的持续好转也将为天然橡胶市场夯实基础,尤其是国内汽车业的高速发展仍值得期待,将继续对天然橡胶市场形成支撑。不过2010年经济政策是否转向,且国际经济恢复缓慢是否会导致“特保案”的负面影响继续延续,这两大因素成为天然橡胶市场的最大隐忧。综合来看,虽然2010年沪胶市场多空因素依旧并存,但总体形势依旧偏多,因此,预计沪胶市场整体重心仍将上移,并可能冲击2008年高点28000元,但也不排除在2010年第2或第3季度出现一波中级调整,下方支撑点在19000～20000元。
Natural rubber market in 2009 deduced a strong bull market, but mainly driven by national stimulus policies, the relative lagging fundamentals recovery. The policy effect will continue in 2010, but the intensity will be weakened. The continuous improvement of the macro economy will also lay a solid foundation for the natural rubber market. In particular, the rapid development of the domestic automobile industry is still worth the wait and will continue to support the natural rubber market. However, whether the economic policy will be diverted in 2010 and whether the slow recovery of the international economy will lead to the continued negative impact of the “special safeguard” will become the two major worries in the natural rubber market. Taken together, although the long and short factors in Hujiao market in 2010 still coexist, but the overall situation is still too much, therefore, the overall focus is still expected Hujiao market will move up, and may hit the 2008 high of 28,000 yuan, but it does not rule out In the second or third quarter of 2010, a wave of mid-level adjustments appear below the support at 19,000 to 20,000 yuan.