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用已有的研究成果作指导,分析了玉米螟发生量与生态因子的关系,研究提出了1代和不完全2代区玉米螟发生量长、中、短期预报模式。长期预报模式为(?)=x(I)/n(I),F=7>F_(0.01)=6.37;中期预报模式为(?)=0.0730x_1+0.4947x_2+0.3428x_3-0.1684,F=6.0469>F_(0.05)=3.59;短期预报模式为(?)=0.8012x-0.1863。并以 PC—1500微机为工具,使用 BASIC 语言编制了预报程序与使用方法.经大面积预报检验,长、中、短期预报准确率分别达到83.3%、91.7%和100%,证明预报模式简便易行,准确可靠,便于贮存和传递,经济效益显著的优点。
Based on the existing research results, the relationship between the occurrence of maize borer and the ecological factors was analyzed, and the prediction models for the occurrence of maize borer in the first generation and the second generation were established. The long-term forecasting models are (?) = X (I) / n (I), F = 7> F 0.01 (0.01) = 6.37 and the medium-term forecast model is (?) = 0.0730x_1 + 0.4947x_2 + 0.3428x_3-0.1684, 6.0469> F_ (0.05) = 3.59; short-term forecasting mode is (?) = 0.8012x-0.1863. The forecasting program and the method of using the PC-1500 computer are compiled by using BASIC language.With the large-area forecast test, the forecast accuracy of long, medium and short-term is 83.3%, 91.7% and 100% respectively, which proves that the forecasting model is simple and easy Line, accurate and reliable, easy to store and transfer, the obvious economic benefits.