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天然气管网系统可靠性影响因素众多,运用极限状态条件下的可靠性计算方法不能满足实际需求,运用不同类型随机变量既可以开展天然气管网多状态条件下系统可靠性概率计算,也可以表示管网运行参数的变化。将管道生产运行参数变换为规范的独立随机变量,进而利用边缘分布函数简化管网可靠性概率计算。综合天然气管网供应能力和天然气市场供需双方经济效益两方面因素,将管道供应可靠度与市场交易财务损失率相结合,形成供需双方满意度的计算方法,为天然气管网运行及市场经营决策提供了量化分析工具。
Natural gas pipeline network system reliability has many influencing factors, and the reliability calculation method under the limit state can not meet the actual demand. Using different types of random variables can not only carry out the calculation of system reliability probability under the multi-state condition of natural gas pipeline network, Changes in operating parameters of the network. The pipe production operation parameters are transformed into canonical independent random variables, and then the edge distribution function is used to simplify the calculation of pipe network reliability probability. Combining the supply capacity of natural gas pipelines and the economic benefits of both natural gas supply and demand, we combine the reliability of pipe supply with the financial loss rate of market transactions to form a calculation method for the satisfaction of both supply and demand, and provide natural gas pipeline network operation and market management decision-making Quantitative analysis tools.