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[目的]预估未来和田绿洲水资源供给与需求,为研究区水资源合理利用及调配提供理论依据。[方法]利用水土平衡法预测未来15年不同水概率条件下和田绿洲的水资源总量和需水量。[结果]当来水概率P=50%时,和田绿洲水资源总量为50.57×10~8m~3,用于社会经济等方面的水资源量仅为33.13×10~8m~3,而2020年、2030年研究区社会经济等方面的需水量将分别为33.44×10~8、36.06×10~8m~3,缺水量为1.31×10~8、2.93×10~8m~3。当来水概率P=75%时,和田绿洲水资源总量为44.30×10~8m~3,用于社会经济等方面的水资源量仅为29.39×10~8m~3,2020年、2030年研究区社会经济等方面的需水量将分别为31.43×10~8、33.11×10~8m~3,缺水量为2.04×10~8、3.72×10~8m~3。[结论]综合考虑气候变化、社会经济发展及节水技术应用等多种因素影响,未来和田绿洲水资源问题将日趋严峻。河流中上游耕地扩张,区间耗水量激增是水资源供需矛盾加剧的主要原因,建议未来绿洲开发在实施高效节水措施的同时,控制耕地面积,严禁各种名义的开荒。
[Objective] To forecast the supply and demand of water resources in Hotan Oasis in the future and to provide theoretical basis for the rational utilization and deployment of water resources in the study area. [Method] The water and soil balance method was used to predict the total amount and water requirement of water resources in Hotan Oasis under different water rates in the next 15 years. [Result] The total water resources in Hotan Oasis was 50.57 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3 when the water incoming probability was P = 50%, and the water resources for social and economic use was only 33.13 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. In 2030, the socio-economic water demand of the study area will be 33.44 × 10 ~ 8,36.06 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3, and the water deficit will be 1.31 × 10 ~ 8,2.93 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. When the probability of incoming water is P = 75%, the total amount of water resources in Hotan Oasis is 44.30 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3, and the amount of water resources for social and economic purposes is only 29.39 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3, 2020 and 2030 The socio-economic water demand of the study area will be 31.43 × 10 ~ 8,33.11 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3, and the water deficit is 2.04 × 10 ~ 8,3.72 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. [Conclusion] Considering the influence of climate change, socio-economic development and the application of water-saving technologies, the water resources in Hetian Oasis will become more and more serious in the future. The expansion of arable land in the middle and upper reaches of the river and the sharp increase in water consumption in the interval are the main reasons for the increasing contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. It is suggested that in the future development of oasis, water conservation should be controlled efficiently while cultivated land should be controlled.