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2015年,过剩的产能被完全淘汰,生猪市场进入新一轮周期性上涨期。由于仔猪冬季成活率低、夏季存活率高,2015年3—8月生猪出栏量少、猪价上涨,9月后生猪出栏量大、猪价下跌。而生猪出栏量难以短时期内大幅增加,意味着需求旺季即将到来。未来生猪价格下跌幅度有限,供应减少导致的猪价上涨将持续一年甚至一年半以上。
In 2015, excess capacity was completely phased out and the hog market entered a new period of cyclical upturn. Due to the low survival rate of piglets in winter and high summer survival rate, piglets’ prices increased in March-August 2015 with a small amount of pigs being slaughtered. Pigs slaughtered in September after a large amount and pork prices dropped. The hog slaughter is difficult to increase dramatically in a short period of time, which means that the demand season is coming. In the future, hog prices will fall by a limited margin. The pig hike caused by a decrease in supply will last a year or even more than a year and a half.