本文利用84个同性恋者的资料,通过模型分析由非输血性渠道感染Ⅰ型免疫缺陷病毒后病人血清学改变至诊断为爱滋病的时间,研究同性恋者感染HIV-1病毒后发展为爱滋病的比例,以及爱滋病的潜伏期。发现,男性同性恋者中感染HIV-1后发展为爱滋病的比例的最大似然估值为0.99(90%置信区间为0.38～1)。同性恋者爱滋病的平均潜伏期的最大似然估计为7.8年(9O%置信范围为4.2年至15.0年),接近于成人由输血所致的爱滋病 This article uses the data of 84 homosexuals to analyze the serological changes of patients infected with non-transfusion-positive type I immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to diagnose AIDS by model, and to study the proportion of homosexuals developing AIDS after being infected with HIV-1 virus. As well as the incubation period of AIDS. The maximum likelihood estimate for the proportion of homosexual men who developed HIV among HIV-1 was 0.99 (90% confidence interval 0.38 to 1). The maximum likelihood of homosexuals’ average incubation period is estimated at 7.8 years (90% confidence range 4.2 to 15.0 years), close to that of AIDS caused by blood transfusions in adults