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本文通过对江苏省出口增速的分析发现,自2004年6月以来,江苏出口增速进入亚洲金融危机后最长的下降周期。通过出口结构分析、出口模型定量研究和预测,笔者认为:2005年出现江苏出口增长的一个拐点。出口增速下降的主要原因是外需下降,汇率作为次要因素。江苏省出口速度下降在结构上的主因是外资企业出口到欧美市场的以加工贸易方式为主的高新技术产品的大幅下降。
Based on the analysis of the export growth in Jiangsu Province, this article finds that since June 2004, the export growth rate of Jiangsu has entered the longest period of decline after the Asian financial crisis. Through the analysis of export structure and export model quantitative research and forecast, the author thinks: In 2005, an inflection point of Jiangsu export growth appeared. The main reason for the declining export growth is the drop in external demand, with the exchange rate as a secondary factor. The main reason for the structural decline in the export rate of Jiangsu Province is the drastic drop in the high-tech products dominated by the processing trade exported by foreign-funded enterprises to the European and American markets.