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本文在动态一般均衡(DGE)框架下分析了要素结构转变对长期经济增长的作用机制以及政府发展战略的抉择对二者之间作用机制的影响,并采用我国1953-2008年数据进行实证分析,研究发现:只要政府考虑增长优先的发展战略,政府将更注重提高当前效用的政策措施而缺乏实施长远发展政策的动力,且越偏重经济增长则越顾及当前利益;政府只有在采取消费驱动发展战略时才会着眼长远发展,并有助于经济的长期增长。长期内生产资本人力资本比和消费水平的提高都将对经济增长具有积极影响,而基础设施人力资本比的提高将对经济增长产生负面影响,政府的发展战略向消费驱动的转变将加剧这一趋势,而短期内政府向消费驱动发展战略转变时需要承受经济增速放缓的压力。随后,本文对结论所包含的政策含义进行了阐述。
In the framework of Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE), this paper analyzes the mechanism of the effect of the transformation of factor structure on long-term economic growth and the impact of government’s development strategy on the mechanism of action between the two. Based on the empirical data from 1953-2008 in China, The findings are as follows: As long as the government considers the growth-first development strategy, the government will pay more attention to the improvement of current effective policies and measures and lack of motivation to implement long-term development policies, and the more emphasis on economic growth, the more attention will be paid to the current interests. Only when the government adopts the consumption-driven development strategy Only in this way will we be able to focus on the long-term development and contribute to the long-term economic growth. In the long term, the increase of human capital ratio and consumption level of productive capital will all have a positive impact on economic growth. The increase of the ratio of infrastructure human capital will have a negative impact on economic growth. This will be exacerbated by the shift of government’s development strategy to consumption-driven economy Trend. In the short term, however, the government needs to withstand the pressure of slowing economic growth when it shifts to a consumer-driven development strategy. Subsequently, the article expounds the policy implications contained in the conclusion.