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目的探索湖南省2011年1月~2015年12月手足口病普通病例EV71阳性率与重症率之间的关联。方法应用SPSS 18.0对2011-2014年的肠道病毒71型(enterovirus,EV71)阳性率与重症率建立直线回归模型和曲线回归模型,并用2015年的数据验证模型,应用组内相关系数(intraclass correlation co-efficient,ICC)评价观测值与预测值的一致性。结果湖南省手足口病普通病例EV71阳性率和重症率的关联,用三次曲线回归模型的拟合优度最高(校正的R~2=0.687),二次曲线回归模型次之(校正的R~2=0.594),直线回归模型最差(校正的R~2=0.420)。三次曲线回归模型对重症率的预测值与观测值之间的两因素混合效应模型单个测量绝对一致ICC值为0.497。结论利用三次曲线回归模型,用普通病例EV71阳性率预测重症率所得预测值与实际值的一致性一般。
Objective To explore the correlation between EV71 positive rate and severe disease rate of common cases of HFMD in Hunan province from January 2011 to December 2015. Methods The linear regression model and curve regression model of positive rate and severe rate of enterovirus (EV71) from 2011 to 2014 were established by using SPSS 18.0. The data of 2015 were used to validate the model. The intraclass correlation coefficient co-efficient, ICC) to evaluate the consistency of the observed and predicted values. Results The positive rate of EV71 and the rate of severe disease in common cases of HFMD in Hunan Province were the highest (the corrected R ~ 2 = 0.687) and the second (the corrected R ~ 2 = 0.594), the worst linear regression model (corrected R ~ 2 = 0.420). The cubic curve regression model had a consistent ICC value of 0.497 for the single measure of the two-factor mixed effect model between the predicted and observed rates of severe disease. Conclusion Using the cubic regression model, the EV71 positive rate of common cases predicted the severity of the predicted value obtained by the actual value of the general agreement.