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80年代海南省曾两次发生大规模的登革热暴发流行,为了深入研究登革热的流行规律和评价不同防治措施的效应,我们在分析登革热疾病生态学、制定传播流程图和重新给出蚊虫出生率、死亡率定义的基础上,建立了一个登革热的确定性微分方程模型。并以海南省两个登革热流行的现场资料检验了模型的可靠性,结果显示观察值与预测值之间有很好的吻合。表明模型很好地反映了登革热的流行规律及各流行病学因子之间的定量关系。同时,将我们的模型与Newton的登革热模型作了深入、详细的分析比较。
In the 1980s, there were two large-scale outbreaks of dengue fever in Hainan Province. In order to study the epidemic of dengue fever and evaluate the effects of different prevention and treatment measures, we analyzed the ecology of dengue disease, established a communication flow chart and re-indicated the birth and death rates of mosquitoes Based on the definition of dengue, a deterministic differential equation model of dengue is established. The reliability of the model was tested on two on-site data of dengue prevalence in Hainan Province. The results showed that there was a good agreement between the observed value and the predicted value. It shows that the model reflects the epidemiology of Dengue and the quantitative relationship between epidemiological factors. At the same time, our model and Newton dengue model made in-depth, detailed analysis and comparison.