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一季度经济超预期下滑,投资、消费和出口同比增速都在下降,尽管3月份的经济数据有所好转,新增贷款的暴增更是令人鼓舞,但能否就此推断整体经济将要反弹?在做出结论前,有必要重新审视3月份数据的另一面。在统计局公布的有限的环比数据中,工业增加值表现出明显的季末特征。也就是说,在2011年四个季度中,逢3、6、9、12月,工业增加值的环比增速都高出前后相邻的两个月,平均高出0.3个百分点。兴业证券
In the first quarter, the economy fell more than expected and the growth rate of investment, consumption and exports all declined. Although the economic data in March improved and the surge in new loans was even more encouraging, could we conclude that the overall economy will rebound? Before concluding, it is necessary to re-examine the other side of March’s data. Among the limited annulus data released by the Bureau of Statistics, industrial added value showed a clear quarterly sign. In other words, in each of the four quarters of 2011, the monthly growth rates of industrial added value in March, June, September and December were both 0.3% higher than those in the two consecutive months. Industrial Securities