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温室效应加剧导致的气候变化将会引起水文系统的变化。随着气候要素的变化,水文变化将会在全球呈现出区域差异性。因此,有必要开展局地和区域尺度上的水文变化影响研究,评价不同区域将会受到怎样的影响。本研究旨在对广泛的瑞典流域上气候变化的水文影响(响应)进行评估。我们采用不同的方法,将气候模型中产生的气候变化信号转换输入到水文模型中。利用瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)生成的区域气候情景,我们进行了几次水文模型模拟研究。得出的基本结论是:根据流域的地理位置处于瑞典北部或南部,气候变化对河道水流的分区影响是显著不同的。此外,预测的水文变化不仅与用于确定区域气候模型边界条件的全球气候模型的选择有关,而且与人为气体排放情景的选取有关。
Climate change caused by the greenhouse effect will cause changes in the hydrological system. As climatic elements change, hydrological changes will exhibit regional differences globally. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on the impact of hydrological changes at the local and regional scales and evaluate how different regions will be affected. This study aims to assess the hydrological impact (response) to a wide range of changes in the Swedish basin. We use different approaches to convert climate change signals generated in climate models into hydrological models. Using the regional climate scenarios generated by the Swedish Regional Climate Simulation Program (SWECLIM), we conducted several hydrological modeling studies. The basic conclusion reached is that, depending on the geographic location of the basin, in northern or southern Sweden, the effects of climate change on the zonal flow are significantly different. In addition, the predicted hydrological changes relate not only to the selection of the global climate model used to determine the boundary conditions of regional climate models, but also to the selection of anthropogenic gas emission scenarios.