本文分析了美国载人航天探索的历史与现行政策,研究了美国国家研究理事会对美国载人航天政策的评估报告,就实现登陆火星的远景目标的不同技术路径进行了可行性与成本分析,在美国预算受限、政策摇摆的背景下,为未来的载人航天政策提供了原则性建议。美国对于载人航天政策的反思与展望,对我国航天事业的发展具有重要参考借鉴意义。 This article analyzes the history and current policies of the U.S. manned space exploration, studies the NSC’s assessment report on the U.S. manned spaceflight policy, and analyzes the feasibility and cost of different technological paths for realizing the long-term goal of landing Mars. Given the limited budget and the swaying policy in the United States, it has provided principled suggestions for the future manned space policy. The reflection and prospect of the United States on the manned space flight policy have important reference and reference significance for the development of China’s space undertaking.