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在技术引进基础上,风电设备企业面临新一代风电设备自主研发的技术选择问题。模型借助TRM(技术路线图)分析框架,从技术资源层、产品层、市场层三个层面阐述了研究假设。通过在政府研发补贴条件下建立的三阶段的博弈模型,模型对每种技术模式下企业未来利润水平进行了分析,并基于对不同技术模式下企业利润水平的比较,得出了未来风电设备企业技术选择的临界值。技术选择临界值的静态分析结论表明:未来风电设备技术选择属于市场主导型,技术选择临界值的本质是在技术产品比较基础上产品使用周期内单位满意度支付意愿;技术选择临界值的动态分析结论表明:各个参数的时间演化结果会影响未来技术选择的可能性或趋势。
On the basis of technology introduction, wind power equipment enterprises are faced with the technical choice of self-developed new-generation wind power equipment. The model uses the TRM (Technical Roadmap) analysis framework to elaborate the research hypotheses from the three levels of technology resource level, product level and market level. Through the three-stage game model established under the government R & D subsidy conditions, the model analyzes the future profit level of enterprises under each technical mode, and based on the comparison of the profit levels of enterprises in different technological modes, it concludes that the future wind power equipment enterprises The threshold of technology choice. The static analysis results of the critical value of technology selection show that the future technological choices of wind power equipment are market-oriented. The essence of the critical value of technology selection is the willingness to pay of unit satisfaction within the product life cycle based on the comparison of technical products. The dynamic analysis of the critical value of technology selection The conclusion shows that the time evolution of each parameter will affect the possibility or trend of future technology selection.