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2013年第一季度,在发达经济体央行同步推行无限量宽松货币政策及欧债危机形势缓和的共同影响下,全球经济迎来新的复苏曙光,金融市场受到极大的提振。展望第二季度,除了欧洲经济依然疲软之外,预计全球经济的复苏力度将会继续增强但另一方面,在局部风险可能增多的背景下,金融市场的过度乐观情绪将会面对调整压力。基于此本期报告重点关注美国量化宽松政策的退出、欧元区面临的风险、日本激进货币政策的效应以及新兴市场面临的货币战等议题。
In the first quarter of 2013, under the common influence of the central bank of developed economies simultaneously implementing an unlimited amount of loose monetary policy and the easing of the European debt crisis, the global economy ushered in a new resuscitation and the financial markets have been greatly boosted. Looking ahead to the second quarter, in addition to the weak economy in Europe, the recovery of the global economy is expected to continue to increase. On the other hand, over-optimism in the financial markets will face adjustment pressures as the local risks may increase. Based on this report, this report focuses on the exit of US QE, the risks faced by the Eurozone, the effects of Japan’s radical monetary policy and the currency war faced by emerging markets.