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1998~2002年在福建省永安市对竹笋万纹象成虫上笋高峰期、老熟幼虫的下地高峰期与毛竹出笋高峰期、留笋平均高、新竹展枝进度等物候关系进行系统观察,结果表明,采用产笋高峰期预测竹笋万纹象成虫上笋危害高峰期,两者之间期距为8 d;建立的预测模型Y=5.6-0.023 6X(式中:Y为当日与成虫上笋高峰日期距,X为留笋平均高)可以预测成虫上笋高峰期,其误差在2 d以内;以新竹第3轮新枝展开30%预测老熟幼虫下竹高峰期,经检验预测误差为1 d。
From 1998 to 2002, the relationship between phenophase of bamboo shoots was observed at the peak of bamboo shoots, the peak of the larvae of the mature larvae and the peak of the bamboo shoots at the bamboo shoots, The results showed that the peak period of bamboo shoots was predicted to be the peak at the peak of bamboo shoot production, the interval between the two was 8 days. The prediction model was Y = 5.6-0.023 6X The peak of bamboo shoot height, X is the average height of bamboo shoots) can predict the peak of adult shoots, the error is less than 2 d; the third round of new branches of Hsinchu 30% of predicted mature larvae under bamboo peak, the test forecast error of 1 d.