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本文以长白山天池火山１２１５ＡＮ大喷发为参照系，采用了“以古论今”的历史分析方法，对天池火山的危险性和火山碎屑流灾害进行了评估，认为长白山天池火山是具有潜在喷发能力的高危险火山，给出了长白山天池火山的火山碎屑流灾害预测分区图，为各级政府部门合理制定土地使用规划和防灾活动捉供了理论依据．
Based on the 1215AN large eruption of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano, this paper uses the historical analysis method of “ancient times and present” to evaluate the danger of the Tianchi volcano and the volcanic debris flow hazard. It is concluded that the Changbaishan Tianchi volcano is a potential eruption Of high risk volcano, given Changbaishan Tianchi volcano pyroclastic flow hazard prediction zoning map for all levels of government departments to develop a reasonable land use planning and disaster prevention activities to provide a theoretical basis.