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全球变暖将在世界范围内产生一系列严重的影响。然而,人们并没有对由此给一些与水相关的因素所造成的影响展开全面的研究,如对水资源和流域生态的影响。本研究应用分布式水文环境模型来评估全球变暖对日本长良川流域水资源和生态的影响。利用1979~2000年和2079~2100年两个时段的大气环流模式输出结果,通过模型模拟,主要揭示了全球变暖对以下4个方面产生的影响:①夏季降水径流量增加;②气温和水温升高;③除夏季外,鱼类生境将得到改善;④农作物和植被分布边界向更高海拔地区迁移。
Global warming will have a series of serious effects worldwide. However, there is no comprehensive study on the impact of some water-related factors, such as the impact on water resources and watershed ecology. This study uses a distributed hydrological environment model to assess the impact of global warming on water resources and ecology in Japan’s Chang-Liang-Chuan basin. Based on the results of the GCM output from 1979 to 2000 and from 2079 to 2100, the model simulations mainly reveal the impact of global warming on the following four aspects: (1) the increase of summer precipitation runoff; (2) the increase of temperature and water Temperature increase; ③In addition to the summer, the fish habitat will be improved; ④ the crop and vegetation distribution boundary to higher altitude migration.