本文提出市场轨道理论:一方面是基于轨道特性的识别对技术轨道理论进行延伸和拓展,为创新与追赶的机会识别提供新视角;另一方面丰富市场颠覆现象的理论解释。本文采用演绎方法,基于已有相关理论,联系实际案例,提出市场轨道理论框架:(1)市场轨道是由主导市场演进的需求要素和渠道要素的演化与变迁所驱动;(2)市场演进及更替轨迹具备轨道特征,包括连续性与累积性、排他性、衍生性;(3)利用市场轨道的创新产品或服务可以从新市场起步,逐渐对已有的市场空间产生侵蚀,甚至取代原有的主流市场,实现市场颠覆。 In this paper, the theory of market orbit is put forward. On the one hand, it is based on the identification of orbit characteristics to extend and expand the theory of technological orbit, providing a new perspective for identifying opportunities for innovation and catching up; on the other hand, it enriches the theoretical explanation of market subversion. Based on the existing relevant theories and the actual cases, this paper puts forward the theoretical framework of the market orbit: (1) the market orbit is driven by the evolution and change of the demand and channel elements which dominate the market; (2) the market evolution and The change trajectory has orbit characteristics, including continuity and cumulant, exclusivity and derivation; (3) Innovative products or services utilizing the market track can start from new markets and gradually erode the existing market space, or even replace the original mainstream Market, to achieve market subversion.