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采用最大熵谱方法分析了1953~1990年间冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积指数、西伯利亚高压强度指数、东亚冬季风强度指数的变化周期,并把冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化与春夏各季节副热带高压的特征量指数(包括面积指数、强度指数)变化进行了比较。研究发现在海冰-大气气候系统中,明显存在10年尺度周期性变化;冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化与西伯利亚高压强度指数、东亚冬季风强度指数均呈现相反的变化趋势,海冰偏多(少)则西伯利亚高压偏弱(强)、东亚冬季风也偏弱(强);冬季海冰面积变化与春夏各季节副热带高压的范围、强度均呈现相同的变化趋势,并且海冰变化要超前0~1年;复经验正交分析表明大气10年尺度周期性变化的振荡源分布均与某一海区(洋区)有关,大气10年尺度变化是对海洋(海冰)变化的响应。
The maximum entropy spectrum method was used to analyze the changes of the sea ice area index, the Siberian high-pressure intensity index and the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index in the areas of the Karaka and Barents Sea in the winter of 1953-1990. Changes in sea ice area are compared with those of the subtropical high in spring and summer (including area index and intensity index). The results show that there is a clear 10-year periodic change in the sea ice-atmospheric climate system. The changes of sea ice area in winter in the Kara-Ho and Barents Sea are contrary to the Siberian high-pressure intensity index and the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index , The sea ice is more (less), the Siberian high is weaker (stronger) and the East Asian winter monsoon is weaker (stronger); the change of winter sea ice area and the range and intensity of subtropical high in spring and summer show the same trend, And the change of sea ice should be 0-1 year ahead of time. The complex empirical orthogonal analysis shows that the distribution of oscillation sources with periodic change of 10-year scale in the atmosphere is related to some sea area (ocean area) ) The response to the change.