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以2004年1月-2007年6月全国进出口总额、进口总额、出口总额和体育用品出口额为分析样本,运用相关分析、单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解技术等方法,对体育用品出口贸易与中国进出口贸易的互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明:体育用品出口贸易与我国进出口贸易、出口贸易、进口贸易存在较高关联度,且4个时间序列变量均为一阶单整I(1)序列。体育用品出口贸易与我国进出口贸易不存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但与出口贸易、进口贸易存在长期稳定的均衡关系。体育用品出口贸易不是我国进出口贸易和出口贸易增长的原因,而进出口贸易、出口贸易却是体育用品出口贸易增长的原因,体育用品出口贸易与进口贸易不存在任何单向上的格兰杰因果原因。进出口贸易、出口贸易、进口贸易对体育用品出口贸易增长波动的总体响应表现为“短期效应明显,长期效应较弱”。进出口贸易、出口贸易与进口贸易增长的波动主要归因于自身因素,体育用品出口贸易对我国进出口贸易事业的贡献程度均维持在较低的水平。
From January 2004 to June 2007, the total amount of import and export, total amount of imports, total amount of exports and exports of sporting goods were analyzed. Correlation analysis, unit root test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function And variance decomposition techniques and other methods to conduct empirical research on the interactive relationship between the sporting goods export trade and China’s import and export trade. The results show that the export of sporting goods has a high correlation with China’s import and export trade, export trade and import trade, and the four time series variables are all first order I (1) sequences. There is no long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the sporting goods export trade and China’s import and export trade, but there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship with the export trade and the import trade. The export of sporting goods is not the reason for the growth of import and export trade and export trade in China. However, import and export trade and export trade are the reasons for the increase of export trade of sporting goods. There is not any one-way Granger causality in export trade and import trade of sporting goods the reason. Import and export trade, export trade, import trade on the sporting goods export growth fluctuations in the overall response is “short-term effect is obvious, long-term effect is weak ”. Import and export trade, export trade and import trade fluctuations are mainly due to their own factors, the export of sporting goods to our country’s contribution to the cause of the import and export trade remained at a low level.